So Far, So Predictable
Everything that has
transpired has done so
according to my designWhile the mainstream media continues to struggle in their effort to decipher the current state of Hollywood labor strife, I’m sitting here (in my trailer at 6:45 AM, thankyouverymuch) wondering when this narrative is ever going to stray from the formula.
As you might recall, I made a few simple predictions about how things were going to unfold. The WGAw would tepidly re-elect the Verrone group (not in terms of margin, but turnout), the WGA would stalemate its way through its negotiations and agree to work past a deadline, SAG would continue to posture threateningly (last week its members had an election choice between “militant guy” and “really militant guy”), and the DGA would likely step in and negotiate early in an attempt to short circuit the path to war.
Well, Verrone & Co. are safely back in office, SAG’s still flexing its biceps, our negotiations (now in round two) haven’t generated any exciting headlines yet, and now, as if on cue…
(from THR)
With Hollywood writers enmeshed in cantankerous contract talks with the studios, the DGA already has begun strategy meetings of its own. The development is sure to fuel further speculation that the oft-independent-minded directors will swoop into the mix of contracts talks to forge a template for other entertainment guilds to follow—like it or not.
There’s not really a question here, regardless of the word “speculation.” The DGA, whose contract expires this summer around the same time SAG’s does, will absolutely be negotiating early.
So here’s what is a question.
How aggressive will they be?
On the one hand, the DGA membership is less reliant on residuals (particularly their below-the-line members). On the other hand, they’ve got a stronger hand to play than usual. Even though the guilds don’t work together, in a funny way, they do work together. The more credible the strike threat from the WGA/SAG, the more leverage the DGA has in their “we’ll save you from a strike” negotiation.
While the WGA uses the strike stick, the DGA uses the carrot of stability, and stability has a very large and very real value for the AMPTP companies.
In another twist, however. I suspect the DGA is aware that if they don’t nail down a reasonable formula for internet download residuals (and “reasonable” is the rub), then the WGA and SAG won’t swallow their pill, and a strike will ensue.
Furthermore, if the DGA doesn’t make a deal, it could be viewed by the WGA and SAG as a green light for a strike.
So if the DGA can’t make an early deal, the AMPTP has a major problem. If the DGA makes an early deal that doesn’t lock in a download rate, the AMPTP still has a major problem. But if the DGA makes a deal that does lock in a download rate, then folks…
…this one’s pretty much over.
SAG and the WGA will still have to haggle over various terms of the rate as they affect their memberships unique working issues, and there are certainly plenty of other matters to negotiate. The big one, though…the strike-worthy one…will be settled.
So, what’s my prediction?
I think the DGA will cut a deal. And I don’t think there will be a strike.
Signed,
Endlessly Optimistic
from LA Times Scriptland, 9-19-07
**a blindsiding Nov. 1 walkout could be a more strategically brutal weapon for the WGA. (This build-up has meant more work in the short-term for a lot of film writers, from the A-list down.)
That scenario of an earlier strike could make it a shorter one since its immediate devastating effect — TV production on all non-reality shows would quickly grind to a halt right in the middle of the fall season and take a long time to gear back up; tens of millions of marketing dollars would go wasted — would make an agreement even more essential. (It would also prevent the Directors Guild of America from hijacking the debate by taking an early deal, as it did in 2004 when the WGA hesitated.) Conversely, waiting to strike — even with the benefit of added support — would allow the companies to stockpile more product and hold out longer.**
I have nothing to add. Just wanted to grab a credit and bump up the comment count.
Anyone mind answering a question for the dumb guy?
I’ve seen a lot of references recently to the notion that if the DGA strikes a deal, then it’s game over for the writers and actors - they’ll just sort of fall politely into line and accept similar terms. Why is this so widely assumed to be the case? (Craig, I notice you’re specifically not assuming it in your post above, so what is the historical/practical/whateverical basis for this idea that causes it to be asserted as fact so frequently?)
The power for WGA and SAG to effectively shut down the town for a while - especially if both struck at once, since that would halt both current production and future development - seems to be exactly the same regardless of whether the directors are theoretically willing to work on a given day. Is there some tacit agreement among the unions not to get wildly out of synch with the terms of one another’s deals? Or what?
(I freely admit my near-complete ignorance on this subject, so pardon a silly question if it’s already been answered elsewhere.)
I think that the fear is of “pattern bargaining”. If you believe in such a thing, it’s that if the DGA were to come to an agreement that set the price on internet, then it’s thought it would be more difficult for the other unions to strike on a similar issue (ie. if the DGA were to make a deal, then it becomes more difficult for the WGA and/or SAG to walkout on internet compensation and still be perceived as being reasonable).
As far as tacit agreement amongst the unions is concerned, a strike by any of them obviously affects the membership of all (as well as management) so they all have an obvious interest in what the other is up to. Trouble is their agreements all end at different times, which in theory, allows management to play off one set of negotiations against another and while I believe there is brotherly love and all that amongst the unions in this case, remember, bottomline is that each must look out for their own. And if one of the three is given a deal they can’t say no to…
I noticed an announcement last week that struck me as odd until reading your post this morning. The start date for shooting the new Narnia movie moved to next June. I thought no one would go into production after March or April to avoid being shut down in the middle of the shoot by an industry-wide strike. And Michael Apted, president of the DGA, is directing this movie! But after reading what you wrote, I have to wonder…does he know something the rest of us don’t?
Craig (or anyone else):
Re: the value of stability for the AMPTP, someone mentioned in a comment a few posts ago (sorry, I can’t remember who/which) that some AMPTP members actually made money during the ‘87 strike since they could cut costs and exploit their back-catalogs, and that, thus, the AMPTP might even practically welcome at least a short-ish term WGA strike. This scared me— what’s your take on it?
John in LA:
It’s possible that Narnia is a foreign production (overseas company, non-union shoot), which would be outside the jurisdiction of unions. I honestly don’t know.
Anon:
Yes, there’s always a measure of profit that occurs when studios can earn money off their libraries without financing new productions (and lay off some labor, deep six a few deals, etc.), but that’s a short-term crack hit. In the long run, strikes cost studios money. They’re going to have to refill the pipeline one way or another.
Craig,
You are just so great. The way you look after writers and talk to them like they are like you and everything and I’m just so happy you have this blog to help us all. You really look after writers and tell the truth and I think anyone that speaks against you should just shut up and listen to you.
Because you speak the truth.
Best,
Leon
(I’m from Russia.)
Craig,
Why do you defend the criminals that are stealing money from artists who create movies? I live in France and the records are public even though the criminals you are working with try to keep them secret.
The WGA is stealing money for artists all over the world and covering it up and you are helping them. It is wrong but you have no shame.
I believe that you will be very sorry for the things you have done.
Sincerely,
Aarzoo Zebloc
I just love the whole ying/yang of the last two comments.
Well I’m from a little place called America. You may have heard of it? It’s right in the middle of the map and it kicks you guys’ countries’ asses. So when you’re making fun of my little buddy Craig, you’re making fun of a little place I’m from that’s known by all to be the number one place in the world. It’s called America.
So you better get your facts right before you take on the writers guild of AMERICA. Cuz all your sarcasm can’t hide the fact that France sucks, and Russia can thank us for its freedom. In fact so can France.
So shove your sarcasm up your butts and thank a liittle place commonly known as America for giving you the freedom to do it.
ps.
Craig, sorry for getting so direct, but you represent the American wing of my union and I won’t ever back off.
“Well I’m from a little place called America. You may have heard of it? It’s right in the middle of the map”
Umm… dude, you know that’s Africa, right? What kind of map are you using?
I mean I’ve heard people say that Americans can’t find their own country on the map, but I’ve never actually come across anyone THAT stupid before.
How’s that working out for ya?
Ruariri - Africa may be the “center” of the ubiquitous Eurocentric map, but Earth ebing a sphere, one could center a map wherever they pleased without any loss of accuracy or information.
For the record - I had enclosed the above post with “” and “” - what’s it say about the tendency of comments here that these would be recognized as valid tags? :)
(Also, sorry for the now 2 tangents. Can’t help it; total spaz.)
The text in between the quotes up there should be “tangent” and “/tangent” in the html brackets.
3 tangents, 3 missed jokes, 3 strikes - I’m out. Back to work.
“…but Earth ebing a sphere, one could center a map wherever they pleased without any loss of accuracy or information.’
Except then you ain’t looking at a map, but at a globe. Watch it spin….wuuuuuh.
“Ruariri - Africa may be the “center” of the ubiquitous Eurocentric map, but Earth ebing a sphere, one could center a map wherever they pleased without any loss of accuracy or information.”
No shit. But since, as you say, the eurocentric map (which as you agreed, has Africa at it’s centre) is, as you say, ubiquitous, why are you bothering to correct me? You just agreed with me! When I say THE MAP, OBVIOUSLY I mean “The ubiquitous map”.
But since we are being pointlessly anal about it, no the Earth is not a sphere, it’s a oblate spheroid.
And even that is an approximation.
And… ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
What were we talking about again?
I think you guys have to get better at figuring out which comments are fake.
Just sayin’.
My irony bypass protests me from ever dealing with the mess that is my life. Please don’t try and break through Craig. it will ruin me.
Oh my God, I’m overweight, ugly, boring and stupid. Craig, you bastard.
Thanks a bloody lot.
you forgot talentless
the last comment was a “fake” one
just saying
Enough about whether or not America is in the middle of all maps. As someone has previously stated in earlier posts, no one can prove it either way.
If the writers go on strike and you’re directing your movie, does that mean you can’t do rewrites of the movie? It seems like Guild writers helming their own movies during the strike would almost defacto be scabs. Every film does rewrites during production. How did this work during the last strike?
There’s an exception in the MBA that allows people to make incidental changes as necessary during shooting without requiring coverage by the MBA.
Actual rewrites of the script…like twelve new pages or a different third act or a substantial revision of any sort? Nope. Not allowed during a strike.
C.
“There’s an exception in the MBA that allows people to make incidental changes as necessary during shooting without requiring coverage by the MBA.”
Now that’s a clause ripe for abuse! I hope that there isn’t a strike because it certainly sounds like the writer/directors who are Writer Guild members are going to be caught between a rock and a hard place.
Is there anyone else talking about this issue? I guess a Guild member wouldn’t walk off of his own film in solidarity with himself! And I can’t see him trying to figure out the difference between a incidental change in the script and a rewrite. It’s like you’re playing the role of the studio defining something as a polish, while, at the same time, playing the role of the writer who’s sure that’s a rewrite.
Craig, I’m of the same mind as far as your forecast. Sadly, I don’t know that it will matter, strike or no strike, as I’m pretty sure we’re in for a slow summer next year. I’m hearing no new starts after march, and there’s still a mad rush on to get shows rolling before then.
In years past, plenty of union writers (most, actually) have actually NOT WRITTEN on their own active projects once a strike was called. They did, in effect, walk out in solidarity with themselves. Made the studios crazy, but that’s what strikes are for.
Semi-sentient, thanks for semi-answering that. When I read the question here, and the answer, which is a bit of a loophole, it made me think, that in today’s dog eat dog world, writer/directors get to continue to write on their projects if they’re in production. Not fair, but realistic. Craig probably wouldn’t but, IMHO, he’d be an exception. I guess I’m too cynical.